Will You?

[Mrs M]

I am not sure I have any opinion on whether opening up on 'freedom day' is the right thing to do, but it bothers me that, when Boris Johnson is asked about modelling for hospital admissions, deaths and cases of long covid, he simply refuses to answer.

Whatever anyone's view of acceptable risk, surely we should be told.

Probably because he hasn't a clue! Mind you, do the ''experts' know for certain? I haven't a clue there. Sadly.

I am for opening the country up as far as our daily lives are concerned [travel is another matter] especially on the self isolation if contacted as a possible contact, but I think masks should still be mandatory [or as mandatory as they have been for some]. As for relying on the population's common sense, I think we all know sense is not common to a part of society so that's a wash out for starters.

[andyn, Bucks]

Probably because he hasn't a clue! Mind you, do the ''experts' know for certain? I haven't a clue there. Sadly.

I am for opening the country up, especially on the self isolation if contacted as a possible contact, but I think masks should still be mandatory [or as mandatory as they have been for some]. As for relying on the population's common sense, I think we all know sense is not common to a large swathe of society so that's a wash out for starters.

Sounds like they will be scrapping the app. One way to reduce the number self isolating.

[Topdeck, London]

All staged with the questions vetted in advance.

I can't decide if they just don't know the answers or are a scared to answer because they are not good.

This modelling data I have no idea where that is and I probably do more data search/analysis than most
maybe that should be on my list.

There is a lot of data around but some is not that easy to find and some is pre processed losing some important context.

[All at sea, Yorks]

Probably because he hasn't a clue! Mind you, do the ''experts' know for certain? I haven't a clue there. Sadly.

I am for opening the country up as far as our daily lives are concerned [travel is another matter] especially on the self isolation if contacted as a possible contact, but I think masks should still be mandatory [or as mandatory as they have been for some]. As for relying on the population's common sense, I think we all know sense is not common to a part of society so that's a wash out for starters.

I agree and also I thought the WHO was still urging mandatory use of masks in crowded and indoor situations plus a number of other measures (which are being dumped here). And as for general common sense......well!

As I said in a recent post it feels as though we are being sent to hell in a handcart. And if it all goes pear shaped then we will get the blame for not showing common sense.

Is this all about blame shifting by the government........?

[annie, Glasgow]

[/B]

I agree and also I thought the WHO was still urging mandatory use of masks in crowded and indoor situations plus a number of other measures (which are being dumped here). And as for general common sense......well!

As I said in a recent post it feels as though we are being sent to hell in a handcart. And if it all goes pear shaped then we will get the blame for not showing common sense.

Is this all about blame shifting by the government........?

And the Amber List rules for England is to change as well.

JMO - they should wait until after the month of July when all the big sporting events have completed.

Amend too many rules at the one time, it can become difficult to pinpoint any source of any additional cases.

Annie

[sandraggg, Newcastle]

Sounds like they will be scrapping the app. One way to reduce the number self isolating.

I wonder how many of these revellers will be pinged by that app...

I guess a lot of pub landlords have probably been fined £1,000 for allowing customers to chant and sing while supporting England...

[andyn, Bucks]

Today they are talking about reducing the sensitivity. May aswell just scrap it, our world beating app that most have already deleted, if not deleted, the tracking turned off and only used to check in, and even that will be redundant soon.

[annie, Glasgow]

Today they are talking about reducing the sensitivity. May aswell just scrap it, our world beating app that most have already deleted, if not deleted, the tracking turned off and only used to check in, and even that will be redundant soon.

I have 1 Unapproved Post pending - time to add another.

They have to 'tweak' the App or face the consequences of trying to recruit tens of thousands additional tracers. BTW did they not recently terminate the contracts of some tracers?

Annie

[andyn, Bucks]

I have 1 Unapproved Post pending - time to add another.

They have to 'tweak' the App or face the consequences of trying to recruit tens of thousands additional tracers. BTW did they not recently terminate the contracts of some tracers?

Annie

Think the only people that still have it on are those that want to get pinged, i.e. those that get sick pay

[annie, Glasgow]

Think the only people that still have it on are those that want to get pinged, i.e. those that get sick pay

On the James O'Brien show this morning, an employer stated that only SSP is payable. CSP s discretionary.

Hardly a lottery win

Annie

[Topdeck, London]

I am quite surprised by the numbers, suggests a lot of people still using the app and there are still a lot of downloads each week.

https://stats.app.covid19.nhs.uk/

12m check in a week down from a peak of 14m. ( I do my fare share)



then there is test and trace data .
https://assets.publishing.service.go...ace_Week57.pdf




The Test and trace had ~110k cases that reported ~280k contacts ~193k of those were same household so not hard to trace they got to ~183k.
non household the other ~87k the got to ~59k

still not that good a hit rate.


now the app had 61k cases and pinged 356k contacts based on those


Don't know where the overlap is but will tweaking the app make any difference to the T&T contact workload if they are different data sets?.

App is averaging 6 contacts T&T 2.55 contacts.


The move to a less aggressive isolation strategy to reflect the vaccine demographic makes sense if they can provide the testing capacity and have people check their own status.


There is an interesting report from china that has looked at Delta they found that the viral loads replicated much quicker and made it more transmissible sooner.

https://virological.org/t/viral-infe...-2-variant/724

[andyn, Bucks]

On the James O'Brien show this morning, an employer stated that only SSP is payable. CSP s discretionary.

Hardly a lottery win

Annie

Yeah, but there are still plenty that are paying CSP, those that aren't getting it would most probably have turned the tracking off.

[andyn, Bucks]

I am quite surprised by the numbers, suggests a lot of people still using the app and there are still a lot of downloads each week.

https://stats.app.covid19.nhs.uk/

12m check in a week down from a peak of 14m. ( I do my fare share)



then there is test and trace data .
https://assets.publishing.service.go...ace_Week57.pdf




The Test and trace had ~110k cases that reported ~280k contacts ~193k of those were same household so not hard to trace they got to ~183k.
non household the other ~87k the got to ~59k

still not that good a hit rate.


now the app had 61k cases and pinged 356k contacts based on those


Don't know where the overlap is but will tweaking the app make any difference to the T&T contact workload if they are different data sets?.

App is averaging 6 contacts T&T 2.55 contacts.


The move to a less aggressive isolation strategy to reflect the vaccine demographic makes sense if they can provide the testing capacity and have people check their own status.


There is an interesting report from china that has looked at Delta they found that the viral loads replicated much quicker and made it more transmissible sooner.

https://virological.org/t/viral-infe...-2-variant/724

I still use check-in, but tracing has been off for quite a while. The only reason I still use check in is it is faster and easier than signing in. Although I have been to a couple of places where they are not bothering with either, and then others where they are very strict and actually check your screen to ensure you are not just using a screenshot.

[Topdeck, London]

I check in because I want the venue alerts, I can then use my own judgment on getting tested,(tracing was only on a couple of weeks.

We park near a walk in in testing station so not that big a disruption to my day if I feel the need for a test..

It looks like one food venue has been closed probably, covid related, and a salon near that as well.

[Topdeck, London]

As we open up more there are going to be a lot of people giving up on the masks and other social measure.
(Some have started already in the places I frequent)

The current data which is climbing but still lower than the previous peek hides an important part of the picture as age matters

Looking at last weeks data and the rates per 100k for the age groups.
(28 June and 04 July 2021)


For each age group what is the rate now( per 100k compared to the highest week between W40 and W10, most of the peaks were over the Xmas break ~W53

0 to 4	5 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	80+	60+
39.72%	107.86%	118.78%	65.43%	32.54%	28.42%	18.59%	13.09%	11.24%	4.47%	10.37%

if you compare that to the vaccine up take for each group you can draw your own conclusions.

case rates have gone up a lot since this data set so will be interesting what the trends are.