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Is vaccination really going to plan?

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    Although there are 14 on the VUI and VOC there are about the same number identified still collecting data and watching just in case they get interesting.

    Numbers are really low now and if they can get on top of the pockets of rising cases which are very few overall it will reduce the numbers even more.






    Anyway the test and trace numbers for 13-19 May.

    You would think now we are under 15k cases a week they could be all over the contact tracing.......
    14,051 cases
    10,800 in the system ( 76.9%)
    8,422 gave details of contacts ( 59.9%)


    They identified just over 40k contacts
    Of the close contacts identified 60% are from the same household and as expected high rates of success 97%

    of the other 40% they only reach around 70% with ~5000 not contacted.

    if proportion of contacts are the same for those that did not give details we have a hit rate around 42% for out of household contacts.



    Comment


      Originally posted by annie, Glasgow View Post

      I have no issue with making the vaccine compulsory unless for medical reasons. The hospital waiting list grows as the unvaccinated covid sufferers occupy hospital beds.
      You may not have any issues Annie bit there are lots of people who will. Covid positive patients in hospital beds are reducing. Non covid patients are being see but as for reducing the waiting lists that will never happen pre or post covid as patients are added everyday.
      don't want to work, just want to cruise.

      Comment


        Finally got round to redoing the chart I did late last year.

        This is the relative rates per 100k by rolling week for England.
        there are 10 groups + an extra one for over 60's

        This abstracts out the falling overall rate to see the relative changes between age groups.
        rate per 100k abstracts out the different population sizes of the age groups.



        Ageweek20.png


        Comment


          pfizer approved for 12-15yo, opens up options to supress the spread as that age group starts to dominate the numbers.


          latest surveillance data out, pockets in north west still struggling


          Looks like Bedford may have got things under control a bid as rates drop but school aged kids are very high(>400/100k) and the 1/2 term effect is yet to filter through.

          Still that rate is low compared to Blackburn/Darwin where it is over 1000/100k in school ages




          Comment


            another update
            https://www.gov.uk/government/statis...llance-reports

            Big uptick in the 20-29 age group overtaking the 10-19
            Big rise in positivity in the 5-9 age group.

            Education dominates the outbreaks

            Also look like the regular testing schools has dropped off.

            https://www.gov.uk/government/public...to-2-june-2021

            Comment


              Tried to find that first vaccine roadmap from last year where the promises were made to see where we are to that plan but could not find it.


              We reached the vaccine open to anyone 18+ milestone, went live today which is great.


              Round us there seems to be capacity to get though them as quick as the supplies are available.


              Interestingly(maybe to just us) the family in Boston are effectively out of restrictions now, life is pretty normal(has been for a while) mask restriction are reduced and their kids get the jab next week.

              Comment


                Hi all
                Just to be a Devils Advocate……..
                What happens when all who wants to be vaccinated have been but the cases still keep rising?

                JC
                C P Scott,,,,,"Comment is Free,,but Facts are Sacred"
                "You are entitled to your opinion. But you are not entitled to your own facts.

                Comment


                  Originally posted by jc, liverpool View Post
                  Hi all
                  Just to be a Devils Advocate……..
                  What happens when all who wants to be vaccinated have been but the cases still keep rising?

                  JC
                  No wink needed as it's a very valid point/question.
                  We darn well start getting on with life knowing the virus is here to stay but being vaccinated, we hopefully shouldn't need hospitalising if we catch it, for starters.

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by Topdeck, London View Post
                    another update
                    https://www.gov.uk/government/statis...llance-reports

                    Big uptick in the 20-29 age group overtaking the 10-19
                    Big rise in positivity in the 5-9 age group.

                    Education dominates the outbreaks

                    Also look like the regular testing schools has dropped off.

                    https://www.gov.uk/government/public...to-2-june-2021
                    Testing has not dropped off at the school where two of my teenage grandchildren attend. The school has four hundred pupils and just yesterday nine pupils tested positive for Covid. Each year group is in their own bubble and fortunately neither child was told to isolate.

                    Both children tested positive for Covid in February this year, as did the entire family, they all isolated. Both parents and one child were ill, the younger child was only mildly affected.

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by jc, liverpool View Post
                      Hi all
                      Just to be a Devils Advocate……..
                      What happens when all who wants to be vaccinated have been but the cases still keep rising?

                      JC
                      Depends on the data behind the numbers,

                      if you look at the delta
                      10% going into hospital are vaccinated so if those numbers are rising something needs to happen.
                      33% of those dying in hospital are vaccinated.


                      At some point you have to decide if you include the cases that probably won't get ill.
                      That last analysis I did on age showed that it's the kids and the 20-29 that have been growing in number.

                      Be interesting what the rate rises look like without them



                      Just so happens i decided to start on another analysis this morning cases on the 7day rolling rates now we have hit 50k in the last 7 days

                      using this data(from the daily dashboard) sticking it in a spread sheet and doing some number crunching.

                      https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deta...ea_last_7_days

                      (number are approx as we don't have accurate data sources for things like population but good enough to show what I was looking for.

                      UK is 50k cases rate is 75/100k in the UK


                      There are 210 upper tier regions in the UK

                      cases range from 0-3k and case rates from 0-577/100k

                      if we sort on case rate. and % of all cases against % of population.
                      regions cases population
                      5 9.70 2.01
                      10 19.95 5.20
                      15 25.18 7.13
                      20 29.70 9.17

                      that mean areas that have ~10% of the population are producing ~30% of all case

                      Excluding the top 20 reduces the UK rate from 75/100k to 58/100k



                      if we do the sort on cases in the region you get
                      regions cases population
                      5 16.42 6.34
                      10 25.25 8.82
                      15 31.70 12.90
                      20 36.77 18.54

                      Excluding the top 20 reduces the UK rate from 75/100k to 58/100k


                      without dropping guard elsewhere a blitz of test and trace and vaccine hesitancy on those areas could have a significant impact on the overall numbers.
                      you can also look at the areas that are climbing the most and try to catch them early


                      The lower tier is 380 regions might do that next as it gives a finer resolution.
                      cases go from 0 -1972 and rates from 0-577

                      Comment


                        Done the lower tier
                        UK is 50k cases rate is 75/100k in the UK


                        There are 380 lower tier regions in the UK

                        cases range from 0-1972k and case rates from 0-577/100k

                        if we sort on case rate. and % of all cases against % of population.
                        regions cases population
                        5 4.25 0.68
                        10 11.96 2.47
                        15 17.55 4.01
                        20 21.88 5.53
                        that mean areas that have ~6% of the population are producing ~22% of all case

                        Excluding the top 20 reduces the UK rate from 75/100k to 62/100k



                        if we do the sort on cases in the region you get
                        regions cases population
                        5 12.38 5.46
                        10 20.64 7.81
                        15 26.37 10.73
                        20 31.04 13.22
                        Excluding the top 20 reduces the UK rate from 75/100k to 59/100k

                        Comment


                          A little over 2 weeks later and numbers have gone up a lot, might do the same analysis as before to see where we are.

                          found a useful page for a few things covid

                          https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...latestinsights

                          plenty of graphs on this one

                          https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...stinsights#age



                          Something to keep an eye on is the data coming out of Isreal on pfizer/Delta efficacy
                          https://www.rt.com/news/528451-pfize...veness-israel/

                          Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine has dropped to 64% effectiveness in preventing infection amid the spread of the Delta variant in Israel, the Health Ministry said, as officials weigh the need for booster shots and new restrictions.

                          The vaccine fell to 64% effectiveness in preventing symptomatic infection over the last month,
                          Looking at the vaccine date a in the earlier link.
                          • Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic cases with the Delta variant is estimated to be 88% after both doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and 67% after both doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine.
                          the drop to 64% may be a significant difference especialy if it changes hospitalization as well, that is currently reported to be still very high >90%

                          the BBC Visual and Data Journalism Team have been busy

                          who does not like pretty pictures to tell a story....

                          https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833
                          Last edited by Topdeck, London; 6th July 2021, 04:56 AM.

                          Comment


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