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Will They Survive?

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    Will They Survive?

    Not people, but the cruise lines. Will the virus take some of the smaller players down?

    How will it affect the big boys?
    See my cruise blog: HERE

    #2
    Originally posted by Malcolm, Essex View Post
    Not people, but the cruise lines. Will the virus take some of the smaller players down?

    How will it affect the big boys?
    Depends upon their debt levels - who is the most indebted??

    Annie

    Comment


      #3
      I expect Carnival and RCI to survive but perhaps put on hold plans for new ships and stop work on ships currently under construction, if that is possible with their contracts with shipbuilders.

      Could well bring forward disposal of older ships in their fleets.

      Comment


        #4
        Very expensive to shut down a build program, look at the NCL Epic series scenario.

        Needs cooperation from the shipyards and finance streams

        Cash flow could be the big problem unless everyone accepts late payments.

        likely there could be chapter11/phoenix, righting off debt and all monies held on behalf of passengers.

        ​​​​​​The supply chain gets stuffed, the big creditors come away owning a leaner operation and the ships.

        Future cruise credit will be worthless and may not be claimable on insurance or CC unless attached to a cancelled cruise.

        ​​​
        Azamara was created picking up cheap ships from the defunct renaissance.

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by JohnR, Chippenham View Post
          I expect Carnival and RCI to survive but perhaps put on hold plans for new ships and stop work on ships currently under construction, if that is possible with their contracts with shipbuilders.

          Could well bring forward disposal of older ships in their fleets.
          Who is going to buy the older ships, they usually end up with the second tier players, UK market think Marella, Fred Olsen, CMV...

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by Topdeck, London View Post

            Who is going to buy the older ships, they usually end up with the second tier players, UK market think Marella, Fred Olsen, CMV...
            Or the scrapyards in Asia? Might accelerate the disposal of older less environmentally friendly, less efficient ships?

            Comment


              #7
              I hope they all do. It’s awful to think of any business cruising or otherwise to suffer that fate due to a virus beyond their control.
              Past cruises:
              Carnival Conquest October 2002
              Independence of the Seas October 2012
              Independence of the Seas May 2014
              Explorer of the Seas June 2015
              Norwegian Escape October 2015

              Comment


                #8
                I wonder how coach holidays are getting on. I was actually hoping to do a coach holiday with one of my daughters over Easter but that’s a no no now.

                Comment


                  #9
                  We have UK based trips booked but the places need to dry out first.
                  Last edited by Topdeck, London; 12th March 2020, 03:02 PM.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    I think cruises might be quite expensive next year, and difficult to get. Lots of people seem to be cancelling but re-booking for next year .............................................Carol

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by Victoria, Aberystwyth View Post
                      I wonder how coach holidays are getting on. I was actually hoping to do a coach holiday with one of my daughters over Easter but that’s a no no now.
                      We have a coach holiday booked for 16th April but I've no idea if it will go ahead now. Similarly I have theatre tickets for the end of this month for a musical and a ballet.
                      Who knows?
                      Jill

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Who knows indeed! It's a shame that cruises are getting such a rough deal in all of this. I've 'persuaded' a few friends to try cruising over the years, and they've all loved it. But the ones who resist have been saying 'over my dead body' these past few weeks!

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by Victoria, Aberystwyth View Post
                          I wonder how coach holidays are getting on. I was actually hoping to do a coach holiday with one of my daughters over Easter but that’s a no no now.
                          Us too. Wanted to do a Shearings to do a Blackpool to dance in the tower ballroom.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            One thing’s for sure, it will cost them a fortune. Cruise prices may go up next year. They’ve had their fair share of bad publicity, haven’t they.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Hi all
                              From a investor newsletter........

                              Over the last three years, Royal Caribbean has paid out $1.8 billion in dividends and has spent $900 million on buybacks.

                              The company would’ve had enough rainy-day funds to survive a downturn; instead, management decided to spend it on avenues that would enrich themselves. So, bailing out the wealthy executives won’t be a good look for Trump.

                              Moreover, Royal Caribbean is registered in Liberia, a known tax haven. The company doesn’t pay the U.S. government any tax, so the chance of getting a bailout from American taxpayers is near zero.

                              The company’s debt has surged since 2015. A coronavirus-driven slowdown has killed the industry, making servicing the debt almost impossible. With no bailout in sight, bankruptcy looks inevitable for Royal Caribbean.

                              JC
                              C P Scott,,,,,"Comment is Free,,but Facts are Sacred"
                              "You are entitled to your opinion. But you are not entitled to your own facts.

                              Comment


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